How do you look back on the COP26 climate summit?
Russchenberg “Many good things were achieved. Agreements were reached on methane and phasing out coal and on funds for the developing world. But the question is whether it’s good enough. The greatest challenge for climate change is in the emerging world. How do we get Africa and South America to our level of prosperity, which is where they want to be, but without any damaging emissions? I didn’t really see enough on how they actually intend to achieve that.”
Timmermans “The heart of the problem is that the countries suffering most from the climate crisis contribute the least to the emissions. These countries rightly say: ‘we have hardly any emissions. But we’re seeing failed harvests, plagues of locusts, the monsoon lasts two months and instead of the hurricane season, we have tornadoes all year long. What are you lot doing about it?’ The industrialised world realises that unless you’re prepared to concede on these points, these countries will be unwilling to cooperate in a renewable energy system.
That said, no form of climate adaptation will be sufficient if we don’t also do enough about climate mitigation, in other words reducing greenhouse gas emissions. That’s something we should primarily hold the G20 countries to account for, because they’re responsible for 80% of emissions.”
Was anything specific agreed about meeting the demands of developing countries?
Timmermans “The sum of a hundred billion dollars a year was supposed to have been promised to support the least developed countries in emission reduction and climate adaptation. But the donors have yet to raise that money. And what should you spend it on anyway? The developing countries want to use it for adaptation and we Europeans agree. That development currently enjoys tentative support from the Americans and other rich countries. It’s an issue that we need to make more specific agreements about at the next COP in Egypt.”
Who is Frans Timmermans?
Frans Timmermans (FT) is First Vice-President of the European Commission, initiator and driving force behind the Green Deal – the comprehensive European programme to combat or at least curb climate change.
Foto: © Sam Rentmeenster
Who is Herman Russchenberg?
Prof. Herman Russchenberg (HR) is Director of the TU Delft Climate Institute and professor of Remote Sensing at the TU Delft Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences. He specialises in the role of clouds and aerosols in the climate system.
The Green Deal target is 55% reduction compared to 1990 by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050. Do you think we will achieve that?
Timmermans“It’s possible. I don’t need to tell a university of technology that some developments happen faster than we think. But others can prove more difficult. At the European Commission, we’ve done a thorough analysis of the figures. But it will only be possible if we apply an integrated approach and make similar progress across all areas. That means in the energy transition, reducing domestic energy consumption and electrifying the transport system. It’s all-encompassing.”
Professor Russchenberg, do you believe that the world community will achieve the targets?
Russchenberg “It might, but there are some significant obstacles. If you want zero emissions by 2050, you will also need negative emissions, which means removing CO₂ from the air. We don’t yet have all the technology for that. In any case, we’ll have to commit to very significant emission reductions because that will ultimately affect how much you need to remove from the air. But, to reiterate, we still need to develop the technology for that. Think about it. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) exists but is too expensive.
Forests make a difference, but grow too slowly. Technological solutions, like chimney filters that remove CO₂ from the air, are still too small in scale. There’s still a lot of work to be done, especially in the development of new technologies.”
Does emissions trading have a role to play? The price was very low for a long time.
Timmermans “Emissions trading definitely has a major role to play. Not long ago, I had a conversation with Bill Gates. He’s invested in a company working on ‘direct air capture’– removing CO₂ directly from the air. Gates said: it gets commercially interesting for us when the CO₂ price reaches around $100. That almost happened at the end of 2021. These market forces matter, especially when technology advances.”
Russchenberg “It’s claimed far too often that technology will save us, but that won’t happen automatically. The leap in terms of innovation required by 2050 is just huge.”
‘On balance, I am still confident that we will achieve the targets’
© Equinox Graphics
ESA’s TRUTHS mission will provide unprecedented measurements of incoming radiation and of radiation reflected back to space by the Earth. This will allow measurement data from other satellites to be calibrated.
© Filo
One technology that can help save us is nuclear energy. What role do you envisage for it in the energy mix as we approach 2050?
Timmermans “It will have a role to play. I want to approach it rationally, not religiously – and I’ve been saying that since the 1980s. You might wonder if it’s still necessary, with renewable energy now being cheap and the price of solar power falling exponentially. It needs to be cost-effective. Of course, there’s the problem of waste and the time factor. The question is whether you want to invest so much of society’s resources in a solution that is ultimately not sustainable. I’m aware that the Dutch government has plans to have nuclear power stations built. It all needs to be carefully calculated.”
What is your view, professor Russchenberg?
Russchenberg “I don’t oppose nuclear energy, but I am against people who drone on about it. There’s suddenly quite a lot of them. I think nuclear energy has a good role to play in the mix, but no more than that. Claiming that nuclear energy is the solution and we should forget solar and wind would be a big mistake.”
If climate change continues, what possibilities are there in climate engineering?
Russchenberg “My area is limited to the techniques that reflect sunlight. You can manipulate clouds by bringing dust particles, aerosols, into the stratosphere, so that they act as reflectors, cooling the earth. That serves as a kind of emergency brake in case the earth gets too hot.”
© Artist’s impression of a Flettner rotor ship J. MacNeill (2008)
Ships that atomise seawater into the air could be a way to enhance the reflection of sunlight. The proposal comes from the Marine Brightening Project of Professor Robert Wood (University of Washington)
IS TEMPERATURE RISE BELOW 1.5°C STILL POSSIBLE?
Is this issue also debated in the discussions you have elsewhere?
Timmermans “Absolutely. We know that we’ll need everything to achieve our targets and cannot leave valuable tools unused. There’s certainly a role for climate engineering. We aim to apply a climate policy based on the precautionary principle: if you apply certain techniques, you need to be able to make a reasonable assessment of the risks to the planet and climate. When it comes to climate engineering, we really need engineers, because it involves tinkering with climate systems.”
Russchenberg “My main concern is this. Imagine it’s 2050. It’s too warm; people won’t take it any longer and demand that something is done. If we end up needing climate engineering and haven’t done any research, we’ll be too late. The research takes twenty to thirty years, so we really need to start now. I think climate engineering needs to be part of the overall climate policy, because when the time comes, if we need it, we need to be ready to be able to apply it. It’s a bit like a fire engine that you would prefer never to use, but still like to have standing by.”
Timmermans “That’s why we are investing in it. We’re also supporting research on this type of project via Horizon Europe and Horizon 2020.”
Green Deal
The Green Deal is a European Commission initiative that took effect last July. It aims to transform Europe into the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. To fight climate change and environmental damage, the European Commission is making a series of changes to climate, energy, transport and taxation policy in order to make it possible to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 55% in 2030 compared to 1990. But this is just an interim step. By 2050, the aim is to reduce net European greenhouse emissions to zero, ensuring that economic growth no longer goes hand-in-hand with the depletion of raw materials.
Foto: © Stephan Timmers
This means that the Green Deal is about more than just renewable energy and energy transition. At the end of 2021, the Commission introduced new regulations to limit deforestation caused by the EU together with new rules to simplify the transfer of waste materials within the EU as a means of boosting the circular economy and tackling exports of illegal waste to countries outside of Europe. The Commission also presented a new soil strategy. The Green Deal aims to facilitate a more sustainable economic resurgence after the pandemic. A third of the 1.8 billion euros in NextGenerationEU recovery plan funding will go to the Green Deal.
When will we need to start thinking about using climate engineering?
Russchenberg “I’m worried that weather extremes will become excessive. Ideally, you won’t need to use climate engineering, but I suspect we may end up using it when it’s too late. That we’ll fail to prepare properly to use the technology.”
Honorary doctorate
“I’ve received honorary doctorates in the past,” said Timmermans, “but there’s never been such a fuss about it.” When Timmermans crossed the footbridge from the Applied Physics building to reach the Aula building on 14 January, there were tractors in front of the main entrance. Angry farmers had joined forces with climate deniers and political opponents to protest against the honorary doctorate TU Delft had announced would be presented during its 180th Dies Natalis ceremony. Earlier, the discontent was expressed through a petition that achieved more than 23,000 signatures.
© Portretten: Sam Rentmeester
WITHOUT IMMEDIATE ACTION, THE WORLD IS HEADING FOR 3.2°C IN 2100
Are there some techniques that can be reversed or used sparingly?
Mr Timmermans just mentioned the irreversibility of the interventions. There’s a whole range of different techniques.
Russchenberg
“Take cloud manipulation. You can change a cloud. It takes two weeks to see the effects. If you stop, it will be gone two weeks later. The effect of stratospheric aerosols lasts a year. If you stop injecting aerosols, they’ll be gone a year later. A year is manageable. That’s not too bad.”
‘The question is whether you want to invest so much of society’s resources in a solution that is ultimately not sustainable’
Could we accidentally end up in an ice age?
Russchenberg “No, it won’t bring back the Eleven Cities Tour (Elfstedentocht).”
Timmermans “I keep emphasising the precautionary principle. The more I read about it the more I realise that all systems are interdependent and the balance is very delicate. We’re disrupting the equilibrium and it’s having a much bigger influence on our environment than we always thought. So, if you work with these kinds of techniques, you need to have lots of models and research to demonstrate that you’re not risking causing a permanent imbalance to that delicate system of equilibrium.”
Russchenberg “It’s been a taboo issue for years. We need to move on from that. We need to do research, because we need the knowledge in order to be able to assess the risks.”
