Do bright minds think alike?
Three experts (TU Delft, government, industry) debate a proposition.
This time:
Tekst Marieke Enter
Should we only build above sea level from now on?
De Graaf “There’s already a shortage of space. Floating solutions will be a better option.”
Hooimeijer “Hydraulic engineers and urban planners jointly could come up with better solutions, focusing on qualities that matter to people.”
Rijcken “That would constitute cultural and capital destruction of dizzying proportions. Unnecessary, unachievable and ill-considered.”
Can we combine this with other challenges?
Hooimeijer “The Netherlands also has a housing crisis and a huge ecological crisis.”
De Graaf “Whatever solution we opt for, circular and nature-inclusive must become the norm. Otherwise, we’re only making the problem worse.”
Rijcken “Our country is a big water machine. The great challenge we face is structuring it in such a way that enables people and nature to thrive.”
Is climate-robustness psychological?
Hooimeijer “The Netherlands is hugely risk-averse, but it’s not sustainable. We need to learn to move with the water.”
Rijcken Staying safe below rising sea levels is largely based on broad relationships of trust within society: trust in technology and in institutions.”
De Graaf “Psychological factors can also quickly have the opposite effect.”
Things are not looking good, according to the IPCC.
“According to part two of the IPCC report*, climate change is turning out worse than expected. It also concludes that we’re just on schedule to ensure we can live safely and sustainably in deltas and coastal areas in the future. But the clock is ticking.”
“The fact that the IPCC highlighted floating buildings as a potential solution was a great boost for our company. It even cites our floating pavilion in Rotterdam as an example of transformative adaptation.”
“This new IPCC report adds further fuel to the debate about climate adaptation and mitigation. Although it seems logical that the low-lying Netherlands should invest massively in CO₂ reduction, that’s dodgy reasoning. CO₂ reduction is for the planet as a whole. Climate adaptation is what we’re doing for ourselves.”
‘Almost half the world’s population live within a hundred kilometres of the coast. You can consider moving them to higher regions, but it’s more logical to look at alternatives’
Moeten we bij keuzes over hoe en waar te bouwen meer uitgaan van klimaatverandering, zoals de Deltacommissaris bepleitte?
“Discouraging urbanisation in the low-lying Netherlands, or even evacuating to higher ground, is expensive and offers few benefits. The Netherlands is a water system created by humans, that has enabled us to live and build up value in low-lying regions for centuries. If you monetise that value, you quickly reach a figure of around 10,000 billion euros. Surely we’re not going to give that up?”
“Almost half the world’s population live within a hundred kilometres of the coast. You can consider moving them to higher regions, but it’s more logical also to look at alternatives. Just like on land, it’s possible to live, produce food or generate energy on water. Indeed, it’s already happening.”
“We definitely need to stop doing what we’re doing now. Hydraulic engineering will not always be able to protect everything in the long-term. It results in spatial tinkering and becomes disastrous if it goes wrong. Besides, the Netherlands faces other issues, including the housing crisis and the huge ecological crisis. We need to avoid focusing too narrowly on solving rising sea levels.”
‘Public opinion matters. In my view it’s also the task of our field to increase people’s powers of imagination: to outline future scenarios and create perspectives. People need to know that there are different choices, with different consequences’
Het gaat om een bredere herbezinning?
“The more our technological options have increased over the centuries, the more we’ve distanced ourselves from the threat of the water system. The Netherlands is now hugely risk-averse, but it’s not sustainable. We need to learn to move with the water.”
“But it has to be in the right way. With a positive ecological impact, sustainable and circular. Not only for the rich, but accessible for all income groups. If we start building floating cities in the same way as we’ve built cities on land so far, we’re only increasing the problem, not solving it.”
“The Netherlands is like a type of water machine: a system created by people based on a situation that was once natural. Nature will never return to the way it was – but we can design the water machine in a more nature-inclusive way, encouraging rare animal species to return and creating beautiful landscapes.”
“Rising sea levels aren’t making our country totally uninhabitable; we just can’t use it in the way we’re accustomed. We can live with dikes that occasionally overflow. On self-sufficient mounds, for example, with their own energy – and water supply and toilets on the first floor. That way, you’re just living with the water, rather than relying on a hydraulic engineer to sort it out. And the ecology also benefits.”
Klimaatrobuustheid zit ook
tussen de oren.
“The question is whether we have the confidence in our ability not only to control our water machine reasonably well, but to do so for centuries. So, it’s about trusting
in the technology, but also in major institutions: a reliable government, a reasonably functioning international economy, the continued development of knowledge and, extremely importantly, a stable energy supply. This issue is very much about relationships of trust in society.”
“Climate-robust solutions go hand-in-hand with all kinds of practical and sociological questions. These relate to property rights, securing finance and insurance. But above all: do people want it? It’s very much a question of seeing is believing. When people see that our floating platform remains unaffected by a storm that flattens half the country, it boosts trust in floating housing enormously. Psychological factors can be stubborn obstacles, but can also quickly have the opposite effect.”
“Public opinion matters. In my view it’s also the task of our field to increase people’s powers of imagination: to outline future scenarios and create perspectives. People need to know that there are different choices, with different consequences. I’ve seen it in Japan, where dikes metres in height were built after the tsunami, completely cutting off fishing communities from ‘their’ bay. It left real scarring. That shows how important interdisciplinary collaboration between hydraulic engineering and urbanism is. It’s by working together that we’ll be able to design solutions focusing on qualities that matter to people.”
So, we should not let choices be ruled by fear?
“If there’s a major dike breach, we’re in trouble. Because then we face a genuine risk of a chain reaction of diminishing trust, increasing emigration, less investment, reduced tax revenue, less money to invest in security, yet another flood, etc. The big uncertain factor on the road towards a climate-robust future is how people respond emotionally.”
“Since 1814, water security has been a national responsibility, aiming to achieve a high level of protection. Now, the Netherlands needs to recalculate its risks. What is our risk appetite, what risks are we willing to take and at what price? Risk is the chance of something happening, multiplied by the consequences. If we reduce the consequences of floods, by ensuring all crucial facilities and infrastructure are well above sea level, we will automatically reduce the risk of rising sea levels. We still have a few decades to ready the country – sea levels will not rise overnight. That gives us time to develop a risk profile that reflects different ‘tastes’.”
“Feeling safe is a basic need, but quality of life and housing goes further than that. There is no single solution for everything, the issue of rising sea levels is too complicated. Everything has disadvantages, even floating construction. But it’s part of our toolkit, together with all other options that might contribute to a climate-proof, sustainable future.”
“Don’t underestimate the power of our system and the existing institutions. I mean, a pandemic hits us and the economy just carries on. Germany, Belgium and the southern Netherlands have seen unprecedented flooding and is that reflected in the macro figures? There is good reason to trust in the robustness of the system.”
Read more. TU Delft offers various online courses on sustainable water management. For all TU Delft online courses, visit online-learning.tudelft.nl.